It's been a while since my last post, so I figured I'd give my preview of the upcoming Minnesota Twins season. The Twins won the AL Central in 2010 with a record of 94-68, leading to a three-game sweep by the New York Yankees in the first round of the playoffs. Very few moves were made this offseason by Minnesota, an apparent suggestion that they felt little needed to be done to their roster. Whether it will be enough to keep up with improved division rivals Chicago and Detroit remains to be seen.
The offense looks to enjoy another solid, but unspectacular year. If Justin Morneau can remain healthy, and that is a tremendous "if", the offense should receive a huge boost. Morneau is one of the most talented first basemen in the league but has fallen like a house of cards the last few seasons. The Canadian slugger was batting .345 with 18 homeruns and 56 RBIs through 81 games last season before succumbing to the effects of post-concussion syndrome. The status of Joe Mauer and his left knee is another primary concern for the Twins this season. Mauer had offseason knee surgery, and played his first game of spring training two weeks ago. Another thing that must be looked at closely with Mauer is his production at Target Field. The hometown hero managed a mere homerun and 29 RBIs at the beautiful new park, compared to 8 homeruns and 46 RBIs away from it. We know his average will be over .300, but the Twins offense would be much more potent if Mauer could reach into his amazing 2009 form, where he knocked 28 balls out of the park and drove in 96 runs. Delmon Young, Jason Kubel, Michael Cuddyer and Jim Thome look to be the other run-producers for Minnesota this year. Young looks to build on a breakout 2010 campaign, where he hit 21 homeruns and knocked in a team-leading 112 runs. While it is unlikely Jim Thome will have the kind of year he had last season, hitting 25 homeruns in 108 games, he'll stay close to the team lead in homeruns should he hold up through the year. Denard Span and newcomer Tsuyoshi Nishioka will provide speed for the lineup, both hitting at the top of the order in all probability. Little will be expected out of shortstop Alexi Casilla, who has floated in and out of the minors the last two seasons. The presence of Justin Morneau and the consistent health of Joe Mauer will lead to one of the better offenses in the American League. Without one or both of them the Twins will find themselves relying heavily on their bend-but-don't-break pitching staff.
Pitching was not much of a problem for the Twins last season, who ended the year 5th in the AL in team ERA. The workhorse of the starting unit was Carl Pavano, who signed a two-year extension this season. Pavano, who won't strike out tons of batters but won't walk a lot either, won 17 games with an ERA of 3.75. He's had a wonderful spring training so far, boasting a 2.16 ERA through 25 innings. Burner Francisco Liriano had a great bounce-back year in 2010 before falling apart in Game 1 of the opening playoff series against the Yankees. Liriano has looked shaky in the spring, with a 4.82 ERA and 9 walks in 18.2 innings. The biggest pitching surprise in Florida so far has been Nick Blackburn, who experienced a below-average 2010. His ERA is 1.73 through seven games in spring training. Another starter looking for redemption is Scott Baker, who was recently named the fifth starter in the rotation. Baker, the opening day starter in 2010, had a weaker campaign last year with an 4.49. Brian Duensing joined the rotation in the middle of 2010, winning 10 games and losing three through 13 starts. He looks to provide a solid mid to back-end presence in the rotation. The bullpen, with the exception of the closers, caused much trouble for the Twins last season. Much of the previous corps, including Jon Rauch, Jesse Crain and Matt Guerrier, has gone elsewhere, leaving the Twins to rely on Jose Mijares, Glen Perkins, Jeff Manship, and former starter Kevin Slowey for their mid to late relief. Perkins, Mijares and Slowey have had nice spring trainings, while Manship has struggled with an ERA of 5.02 in 14.1 innings. Manager Ron Gardenhire has elected to use both Matt Capps and Joe Nathan for the role of closer for the time being. Capps has yet to give up a run in 10 innings, while Nathan has allowed nine earned runs in 8.1. I personally see Matt Capps ending up as closer during some point this season. The Twins should have little trouble staying in close ball games if starters Pavano and Liriano can repeat their 2010 campaigns and if Baker, Blackburn and Duensing can be simply average. They will just need that ever-valuable run support in order to win those tight contests.
I don't see this team being that far off from 2010's, especially if Justin Morneau recovers completely from his concussion. The bullpen looks to be the biggest question mark for the team. If the Twins can get at least one or two good performers in that group the issue of relief should be resolved. However, the Detroit Tigers will be extremely strong this season, and will likely be the Twins closest competition.
2011 Prediction: 89-73, second in AL Central (to Detroit Tigers
